Key Tips on Sales Forecasting for Business Owners

SBA LogoBy Tim Berry, Guest Blogger
Published: August 23, 2024

Don’t underestimate the value of a sales forecast for running a business effectively. Even if you do nothing else in the way of planning, having just a sales forecast plus regular review and revision can go a long way towards better business management.

Here are five tips that have helped me integrate the sales forecast into my management process for decades.

  1. Set the bar right from the beginning

One of the biggest problems with sales forecasting is the idea that it’s supposed to be accurate months in advance. That’s not the point. It’s about connecting the dots between sales and related expenses, finding the drivers (see #4 below) and tracking results so you can see changes as they happen.

It’s unlikely you will set a sales forecast and then live with it, unchanged. As in tip #5 below, you set the forecast and then watch, carefully, for interruptions, fluctuations, etc.

What you forecast for sales next summer, while you work on it for the present month, is a matter of getting the interrelationships written down so you can track progress and manage change.

In the real world, when you do your forecasting right, you’ll have lots of revisions as time and other factors affect your predictions. Just get it down early, so you can review results later. If you don’t forecast, you’re running blind.

  1. Find the right level of aggregation and summary

Don’t forecast your sales as one number, in dollars. Don’t forecast sales as 100 detailed lines of sales. Find a level of sales groups you can manage. This has to do with the way we, as humans, think. We can’t work with too much detail; but it’s still useful to break things down enough to offer meaningful insights.

The most obvious example is breaking sales into units and price per unit. With that simple breakdown we can later analyze, whether the difference between planned and actual results were caused by price differences, volume differences, or both. And natural divisions, such as channels of distribution, or major product categories, can be very useful.

Find the level of summary and aggregation that works for your business. You’re unique and so is your business. There are no hard and fast rules on this. Make it so it works.

For example, with my software business, we don’t forecast sales broken into dozens of different sub-versions and options; we forecast our three main lines, aggregated and summarized.

The restaurant ought not to do a sales forecast broken down into each of the 75 items on the menu; but rather major sales categories, such as meals, drinks, appetizers, and other; perhaps it could be breakfast, lunch, and dinner.

The bookstore ought not do a sales forecast for each book. Imagine how difficult and inefficient. It might be more useful to forecast for paperback versus hardback, fiction versus nonfiction, books versus magazines.

  1. Match your accounting

Most of the benefit of the sales forecasting comes from the ongoing management of the difference between planned and actual results (as in #5 below). Therefore, to ensure your sales projections is worthwhile, make sure the organization of the forecast in rows or items or groups matches the way your accounting or bookkeeping tracks them.

Match your chart of accounts, which is what accountants call your list of items that show up in your financial statements.

If the accounting divides sales into meals, drinks, and other, then the business plan should reflect those divisions. if your chart of accounts divides sales by product or service groups, keep those categories intact in your sales forecast. If bookkeeping tracks sales by product, don’t forecast your sales by channel instead.

If you’re planning for a startup business, coordinate the bookkeeping categories with the forecasting categories.

Get your last Income Statement (also called Profit & Loss) and keep it in view while you develop your future projections.

  • If you don’t have more than twenty rows of sales, costs, and expenses, then make the rows in the projected statement match the rows in the accounting.
  • If your accounting software summarizes categories for you – most systems do – consider using the summary categories in your business plan. Accounting needs detail, while planning needs a summary.

If your categories in the projections don’t match the accounting output, you’re not going to be able to track plan versus actual as well. It will take retyping and recalculating. You may lose the most valuable benefit of business planning: management.

  1. Look for your specific sales drivers

Most every business has the so-called drivers that lead to sales. For some businesses, it’s foot traffic; for others, it’s web traffic. Maybe for you it’s downloads. Some traditional businesses look at lead generation, leads, presentations, and closes. Others consider the pipeline related to direct sales deals in the cycle from lead to close.

Use the concept of sales drivers to help develop a sales forecast and then manage the business process that generates the drivers. It will help you track and manage your business better.

For example, in our software business we look at organic web traffic, pay-per-click web traffic, and traffic generated by affiliates, all of which we measure in visits. And we look at conversion rates, which we measure as the percent of web visitors who end up purchasing software.

And, as another example, back in the 1990s when retail sales were important, we measured unit sales per month per store.

Think about what factors drive sales for your business; and how you can use the measurements of those factors to improve your sales forecast.

  1. Review and revise often

Don’t let your sales forecast sit unused. Schedule a regular time for sales forecast review and revision at least once per month. Get your forecast and compare it to actual results. Look for surprises both good and bad. Reward people whose work influenced the good surprises, and talk to the people responsible for bad surprises or poor performance. Revise your sales and marketing programs to take advantage of what’s working well, and correct what isn’t.

Sales forecasting, done right, is a fundamental part of planning. And planning, done right, is management.

As former president and military strategist Dwight Eisenhower once said: “The plan is useless; but planning is essential.”

 

College, Career Academy flies ahead of others

PCHS_Crest_300dpiBy Lynn Hobbs
The Eatonton Messenger
August 25, 2024

Putnam County High School is flying ahead of others in the state and nation, according to dignitaries and leaders at a recent event. It is the only high school in Georgia, and possibly one of a few in the nation, that now offers a certified drone pathway, they said. Students who complete the courses will be qualified for certification in the field through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), school officials said Friday during a launch of the pathway.

“I think it’s a fantastic program; I think it will be the first of many,” Mike Howard said after the presentation. Howard is a curriculum program specialist for the Technical College System of Georgia and was one of about 100 people from all over the state who attended the event.

“It’s the tip of the iceberg as more and more industries will find they need to use drones and need pilots,” he added. The drone, or unmanned aircraft system, course is the high school’s 16th pathway in its college and career academy, Principal Marc Dastous said. College and career academies, which allow high school students to simultaneously earn technical certifications and/or college credits while earning their high school diploma, was an initiative of Georgia Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle. The state’s second in command was at PCHS Friday for the launch.

Putnam County High School Senior Jarad Coranado, standing, shows Georgia Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle how to operate a flight panel simulator.

Putnam County High School Senior Jarad Coranado, standing, shows Georgia Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle how to operate a flight panel simulator.

“Any category you use to measure Putnam County schools by, they are succeeding. It’s remarkable that students are fighting to get into school, versus fighting to get out,” Cagle said, bringing applause from the audience.

Others who attended the special launching event include State School Board 10th Congressional District Representative Brian K. Burdette, State Sen. Burt Jones, R-Jackson, several representatives from the Technical College System of Georgia, representatives from the offices of U.S. Sen. Johnny Isaakson and U.S. Rep. Jody Hice, R-Monroe, Georgia CCA Network Chairman Barbara Prosser, representatives from other technical colleges and school districts, local entities, local public safety, businesses, and more.

Putnam County Board of Education Chairman Dr. Steve Weiner thanked legislators for the state’s charter and college and career schooling opportunities. “We are doing what we should be doing – providing children opportunities they might not otherwise thought of in a small rural area,” he said.

Students of the new class fly smaller drones over the crowd during Friday’s launch of Putnam County High School’s Unmanned Aircraft Systems Pathway.

“I like it a lot,” Senior Jarad Coronado said. “College and Career Academy has really opened up different opportunities to us and giving it all to us for free. It gives you a taste of do you really want to do this before you go to college and spend a lot of money. And I can get a job right out of high school; I’m going to college, but I could get a job if I wanted.” Jarad said he is a certified nursing assistant and certified in first aid through PCHS and Central Georgia Technical College’s healthcare pathway, and now he is trying out unmanned aircraft aviation. “I’ve always been intrigued by technology. This pathway gives me the opportunity to have fun at school – just putting those two words in the same sentence is unusual,” he added with a laugh.

The drone pathway is a partnership between PCHS, Mercer University and Advanced Airspace Management, Superintendent Eric Arena said, noting “it took five months to go from conversation to actually having a pathway.”

Mercer University School of Engineering Associate Professor Dr. Anthony Choi said his program is providing the educational component, while John Granich at Advanced Airspace Management is providing the commercial component. Choi’s primary research at Mercer is autonomous mobile robotics and artificial intelligence, through which he creates projects for NASA. Arena noted the PCHS students will have the opportunities to at least watch some NASA projects, or potentially be involved.

“We are creating a feeder system into our program, or any university’s,” Choi said. “We jumped at the chance because we will get to know more students.”

Granich recently started AAM in Putnam County along with partner Tommy Cook. Advanced Airspace Management flies drones for mining and agriculture businesses. Granich, who is looking to employ about 300 UMA pilots, said he will be training students that could become his own employees.

“To think that here in Putnam County, an entire industry was started that will train for companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, is remarkable,” Cagle noted to The Eatonton Messenger. “I know if you give people the opportunity to create and explore, they will come up with great things, and Putnam County certainly is doing that.”

Although the various Putnam school administrators spoke to kick off the event, the launch itself was led by PCHS students. There are 15 in the first drone class, being taught by Granich, Cook and Choi. PCHS student Dayana Paz led the group outside using a drone she had pre-programmed to show them the way out of the building. There other students demonstrated various types of drones, then the crowd went into the classroom for more student-led demonstrations.

 

Link to 13wmaz TV Macon’s coverage of the event at PCHS:
http://www.13wmaz.com/mb/news/local/putnam-county-high-school-offers-new-drone-course/303051895

 

 

 

Putnam County Charter School System Celebrates Unmanned Systems Pathway

DRONE PROGRAM

 

 

 

 

Putnam County High School welding students excel

Putnam County High School welding students showing off a see saw they made for the PCHS campus include, from left, Clinton Lea, Aaron Clark, Clinton
Clemons, Brandon Marshall, Tyler Deloach, Douglas Gordon, David Sides and Brandon Price.

 

The Eatonton Messenger
July 14, 2024

There are more than 25 students at Putnam County High School enrolled in welding courses through Central Georgia Technical College, all of whom are also Youth Empowerment for Success (YES) program members. Welding instructor, Aaron Clark, has always been a proponent of incorporating project-based learning into the welding curriculum as opposed to merely practicing on mundane six-inch steel plates or utilizing unrealistic 3D simulators.

In Clark’s class, students at all levels get to participate in the creation of welding projects throughout their time in the program, many of which are considered community service based projects. For example, last year, the school’s YES welding students fabricated 10 bike racks for distribution throughout the community. This year, those bike racks were donated to the Eatonton-Putnam Chamber of Commerce and installed for use along an Eatonton bike tour route.

This fall, YES students created three scarecrows as a part of their entry into Eatonton Main Street’s Art Bliz Scarecrow Contest to represent the different areas of the program. The welders combined their skills to create a scarecrow to represent their stake in the YES program, and the entire entry ended up winning first place!

However, the most recent buzz around the PCHS campus surrounded the large-scale playground equipment the welders built and installed. When you first arrive at PCHS you will now be greeted by a 24- foot, steel see-saw that has adjustable seats. Welding students also constructed a 24-foot monkey bar system with varying levels to increase the challenge of making the trek across them. Clark envisioned that these two projects could also benefit both math and science departments through fun, hands-on activities of their own too.

YES Presentation logoFurthermore, earlier this semester, senior welding students competed at the Skills USA Leadership and Skills Conference (SLSC) at both regional and state levels. PCHS welders brought home four second place wins and one first place win at region, and also scored a third place win at state!

Each of these examples provides evidence that Clark’s philosophy on teaching welding to PCHS students has had a very practical application, and supports a high level of achievement. In fact, this dual-enrollment program at PCHS is so successful that at this year’s graduation ceremony the senior welding students will be awarded a combined total of more than 30 Technical College Certificates (TCCs). What is even more impressive is that two of those ambitious senior welders, Austin Sanders and Sterling Underwood, also earned a degree from CGTC in Welding and Joining Technology in conjunction with their PCHS diploma.

The Youth Empowerment for Success Program at Putnam County High school was created with the main goal of providing students with opportunities and skills that will help them be successful when they leave PCHS! Former Principal Barry Lollis noted, “Our students’ successes and passions in their area of study are ignited by the quality of their instructors and the engaging strategies they utilize in their classrooms.”PCHS_Crest_300dpi

 

 

Human Resources Workshop - November 16th

BEST PRACTICES FOR TODAY’S WORKFORCE

In today’s environment one of HR’s greatest challenges is to hire and retain the best talent
while maintaining legal compliance and providing a competitive pay and benefits program.

 

 

Speakers:

  • W. Melvin Haas, III, Partner, Constangy, Brooks, Smith and Prophete, LLP
  • W. Jonathan Martin, II, Partner, Constangy, Brooks, Smith and Prophete, LLP
  • Alyssa K. Peters, Attorney, Constangy, Brooks, Smith and Prophete, LLP
  • Dana L. Thrasher, Partner Constangy, Brooks, Smith and Prophete, LLP
  • Jeffery L. Thompson, Partner, Constangy, Brooks, Smith and Prophete, LLP

 

Cost:

Georgia Employer’ Association Member: $125.00
Non Member: $199.00
Includes Lunch and Parking

 

Register:

http://georgiaemployers.org/fall-human-resources-workshop-registration/

 

About GEA

The Georgia Employers’ Association, an affiliate of the Georgia Chamber of Commerce, is a statewide, member based association that provides a variety of management and human resource services designed to enhance an organization’s competitiveness and compliance. In addition to back office support for members’ human resource departments, GEA conducts onsite training to help solve today’s workplace issues and regulatory challenges. Since 1981, the GEA has assisted employers of all sizes and industries with HR compliance reviews, training, employee assessments and surveys. GEA’s staff provides professional expertise combined with years of practical experience in Human Resources positions.

 

 

 

Email Marketing Basics for Small Business

SBA Logo
By: Ijeoma S. Nwatu
Published: July 14, 2024

Email marketing is just one of many ways to engage customers and ultimately lead them to purchase a product or service. Building and maintaining a healthy email list is important in learning more about your customer base and how they respond to your business, as well as generating potential new business. If your business has not explored nor maximized the possibilities of email marketing, read more about how to leverage your existing and future contacts. If you are a small business owner looking to try a different tactic or introduce something new, why not use a change in season to test new ideas.

Get permission

First and foremost, your email marketing campaign or listserv should have the option to opt-out of emails. Subscribers may have their reason for removal from your list and to capture their explanation, add a comment section before they officially remove themselves. By having permission to be in the electronic inboxes of your customers, you can better target content and offerings to be the people who want to remain on your list. If you want to incentivize your email list or a special campaign, consider adding a discount code, flash sale or customer appreciation message.

Test and then test again

Once you focus on the subscribers who remain on your list, regardless of how many subscribers, there is an opportunity to experiment with different type of sales copy, promotions, visuals, etc. A simple way to test subject lines or a specific merchandise is to A/B test a call-to-action (CTA), time of day, or even the email’s layout. Send two emails to similar groups within your email list but hold a variable for testing. Make sure to have predetermined goals and review the analytics of open and click through rates of hyperlinks, especially those tied to your website.

Incorporate seasonal trends

If weather or the time of year affects your sales or potential new business, tailor email marketing accordingly. For example, if you manage a summer camp for teens, then you may target different groups to include school staff, parents, and community officials to inform them of your offerings, cost and availability. A common example of seasonal emails is small businesses and big brands using holidays like Thanksgiving and Valentine’s Day to generate sales and customer interest about their products and store specials.

Integrate email marketing as part of an entire plan

A small business may not have a lot of marketing resources but to maximize your efforts, it’s important that email marketing and subsequent campaigns are connected to other business goals and marketing objectives. Think about social media, advertising, events, SEO, and other strategies that can work in tandem with your email marketing.

Email marketing can have many layers and may require knowledgeable staff or additional resources. Starting with the basics can help small businesses take advantage being present in their customers’ inboxes. Don’t lose sight of the chance to engage them, delight them and to make a sale.

Resources

CAN-SPAM Act: A Compliance Guide for Business

 

 

Tri-County EMC Completes $2 million, 10 Acre/1 MW Solar Project

EATONTON, GA (July 21, 2024) —The Putnam Development Authority announced today that Tri-County EMC has invested approximately $2 million into a 1 MW solar site, the largest and the first of its kind in our area. The 10 acre site has over 4,200 solar panels and will generate over 2 million kWhs per year. The facility is located adjacent to the Tri-County EMC Eatonton District Office in Putnam County.

With ourSolar, Tri-County EMC members have the opportunity to get solar generation for their home or business without any of the risks of installing solar panels on their roof or property. The energy for ourSolar will come from this new 1 MW solar array in Putnam County.

For $25 per month for each 1.22kW block, the customer will have all of the energy generated by the block credited against the normal usage on that month’s electric bill. Each block should generate approximately 160 to 250 kWh per month. Best of all, there is nothing to install or finance and no contract. The customer can end their participation at any time, although to rejoin they must wait twelve months.

Cooperative Solar Advantages

  • No installation or maintenance costs for to the customer
  • No holes in the customer’s roof
  • Lower costs per kWh through economies of scale
  • No issues with shading or roof direction
  • Renters or homeowners with restrictive covenants can participate
  • No up-front costs, financing, or long-term contracts
  • Limited to 4 blocks per account

About Tri-County EMC:

Tri-County Electric Membership Corporation is a member-owned electric cooperative serving more than 21,025 accounts in Baldwin, Bibb, Jasper, Jones, Morgan, Putnam, Twiggs and Wilkinson County. The cooperative, chartered in 1939, is headquartered in Gray, Georgia and has a district office in Eatonton. Tri-County EMC is governed by a nine-member board of directors elected by and from the cooperative’s customer/members. For more information about Tri-County EMC go to: https://www.tri-countyemc.com/

About Putnam Development Authority:

The purpose of the Putnam Development Authority is to develop, promote, and expand for the public good and general welfare, industry and trade within Putnam County. For more information, visit the website at http://putnamdevelopmentauthority.com/

###

Contact:
Terry Schwindler
Economic Development Director
tschwindler@PutnamDevelopmentAuthority.com
706-816-8099

SBA Offers Exporting Counseling, Training and Financing Assistance

SBA LogoSmall businesses looking to increase sales and profit are taking their businesses global. SBA provides counseling, training and financing to support small business export opportunities.

 

  • Opening Global Market Access for Small Business
    Discover the small business benefits of U.S. trade agreements and report trade barrier issues.
  • Export Success Story Videos
    Check out the winners for SBA and Visa’s “My U.S. Export Story” video contest. These videos tell the stories of small business success in exporting.
  • US Export Assistance Centers
    USEACs provide export assistance and counseling for small businesses.
  • Export Loans
    SBA provides a number of loan programs specifically designed to help develop or expand trade and export activities.
  • Export Business Planner
    A free, customizable tool for small business owners who want to begin exporting.
  • State Trade Expansion Program (STEP)
    Learn about SBA’s State Trade Expansion Program
  • Explore Exporting
    Doing business internationally may seem overwhelming at first. A number of government programs that offer training and financial assistance to small businesses can help.

Read blog articles about Exporting.

 

E-Commerce Lunch & Learn presented by Georgia College & State University (CODEC) August 3rd

E-Commerce Lunch & Learn

Wednesday, August 3rd, 2016
12:00 Noon

 

CODEC will educate rural businesses on how to develop e-commerce websites, create effective social media pages and improve search engine optimization (SEO) of their websites.

 

Location:

Maxwell Student Union University Banquet Room
Georgia College in Milledgeville

Corner of N. Clarke St. & E. Hancock St. Entrance on E. Hancock St., Milledgeville

 

For Inquiries, please call (478) 445-5721

Registration Ends July 27th.

Event Registration:

GC CODEC Lunch & Learn

 

Financing Your Small Business Exports

SBA LogoMany small businesses think they are too small to compete in the world market. In fact, 97 percent of all exporters are small businesses. The federal government has loans, insurance and grant programs to help you become an exporter or expand your exporting business.

 

SBA Export Loan Programs

SBA Export Express offers financing up to $500,000. It is the simplest export loan product offered by the SBA and allows participating lenders to use their own forms and procedures. The SBA determines eligibility and provides a loan approval in 36 hours or less.

The Export Working Capital loan provides advances for up to $5 million to fund export transactions from purchase order to collections. This loan has a low guaranty fee and quick processing time.

SBA’s International Trade Loan Program provides small businesses with enhanced export financing options for their export transactions. The ITL is designed to help small businesses enter and expand into international markets and, when adversely affected by import competition, make the investments necessary to better compete. The ITL offers a combination of fixed asset, working capital financing and debt refinancing with the SBA’s maximum guaranty— 90 percent— on the total loan amount.

Other Federal Export Financing Programs

The federal government has several additional loan programs, grant and contract opportunities, and insurance programs for exporters. To find the program that best suits your export needs, visit Business.USA.gov where you will also find resources from across the U.S. government, including market research, trade leads and information about export finance.

The Trade Information Center, 1-800-USA-TRADE, is staffed by international trade specialists who provide information about government export programs; the export process; market research, statistics and trade leads; trade events and activities; public and private export financing; and referrals to federal, state and local resources.

View the flyer: Financing Your Small Business Exports, Foreign Investments or Projects